Jump to content

What the *%&^$ is going on?!?!?


DYoung
 Share

Recommended Posts

Or if you're less scrupulous, invest in any of the big oil companies, and make your killing that way and avoid the inevitable government-environmental group wrangling over ANWR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 113
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I'd prefer nuclear. We can always outsource where to dump the spent fuel, and it's a lot better than "fouling our nest" with more oil drilling and the pollution it causes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd prefer nuclear. We can always outsource where to dump the spent fuel, and it's a lot better than "fouling our nest" with more oil drilling and the pollution it causes.

It may happen with regime change. But then how popular would that be dumping in someone else's backyard? Industrialized nations already send tons of old electronics and hazmat suspicious items to places like Bangladesh for 'recycling' where it ends up poisoning the locals who work with the stuff. Cynical as it may be, its feels great to be green in your own country but ignore the cost of its effects elsewhere. What we no longer use or need has to go somewhere if we don't want anymore landfills here.

Furthermore, I wouldn't characterize the present economic cycle as typical though - there is a war going on (which is an economic aberration) so no one can generalize whether the trillions spent fighting it will have little impact on a typical 10-12 year cycle. The impact may not be readily apparent now but certainly your kids or grandkids will be paying for it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hooray for discourse! I think more drilling is a band-aid solution. Nuclear power is a disaster. After just a few decades the salt-mines that were supposed to contain the waste for tens of thousands of years are seeping. As for disasters, the mighty sarcophagus that was supposed to seal off Chernobyl forever is falling apart, only 20 years on. Its time for us to check our energy consumption at every corner and work on technologies to reduce it further. I fear that won't happen though, as it wouldn't be profitable for the companies that line the pockets of our politicians. Why work to reduce our oil dependence when you can rake in $103 a barrel for crude?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hooray for discourse! I think more drilling is a band-aid solution. Nuclear power is a disaster. After just a few decades the salt-mines that were supposed to contain the waste for tens of thousands of years are seeping. As for disasters, the mighty sarcophagus that was supposed to seal off Chernobyl forever is falling apart, only 20 years on. Its time for us to check our energy consumption at every corner and work on technologies to reduce it further. I fear that won't happen though, as it wouldn't be profitable for the companies that line the pockets of our politicians. Why work to reduce our oil dependence when you can rake in $103 a barrel for crude?

Great points Seth! Why aren't there people like you running for office? I mean, far be it, that we actually elect a responsible, straight forward thinking candidate....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great points Seth! Why aren't there people like you running for office? I mean, far be it, that we actually elect a responsible, straight forward thinking candidate....

Because I'm not rich. We need an overhaul in this country, we've been led too long by the top 5%. They are out of touch. America's politicians should be hard-working middle class people, not billionaires who live in a whole other world.

El Busheroo wants to drill for more oil, does anyone believe it will get cheaper? The folks at the top want to drill so they can squeeze some more money out of the ground. If its going for 100+ dollars a barrel and rising is there any reason to believe price will go down when demand is up on a dwindling supply? Oil production has been in plateau to demand for about 5 years now. Pushing production might prolong the plateau but it won't drive production up in comparison to demand. Major change has to come sooner or later and it will need to happen from the top down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am late to the party as usual. At any rate, Mike asked me to chime in here due to my profession, and I would have earlier, but I was out of the country. What I am commonly asked by my clients is "what should we do now?" Great question, but I generally ask them, have your objectives changed? Meaning, just because the market isn't so great right now, should that change your objective. For most of us, the answer is no. So, lets see if we can't skim the surface of some of the issues mentioned....

Not to get too deep, but the financial media is the devil. If you listen to the financial media, you will feel the world is coming to an end, we are in a recession and you need to position your financial portfolio so that you will be able to take advantage of the upcoming recession (for example, go from stocks to bonds). Well, by definition a recession is a decline in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for two or more successive quarters. To my knowledge, that has not happened. And if you were going to go to bonds, I would say that April of 2007 would have been a good time to do that. Also, keep in mind that Wall Street gets paid on the spread, meaning they are one big used car lot. If you are willing to sell your investment portfolio (or any item for that matter) there is someone on the other end of that transaction that is willing to buy what you are selling. In order to get you to sell, they have to make you uncomfortable enough to get out of the market. The financial media is that tool. If you do that, regardless of market conditions, they make money. It boils down to business, and they are not a non-profit organization.

Secondly, lets talk about the value of the dollar. Yep, it is less than it has been in the past, but nothing new there. Our money is worth only what we agree it is worth. There is no backing other than faith. So, should we buy gold? I wouldn't, but that is just me. There have been a lot of good points made in this thread about why we should/shouldn't buy gold, but the bottom line is gold does not keep pace with inflation. And after all, why do we invest, to keep pace and beat inflation so our dollar has purchasing power.

Mortgage issues. This is a touchy subject, but one that is in the forefront right now. The reality is that only 5% of the mortgages in the U.S. (according to the Wall Street Journal) were impacting by the sub-prime meltdown. The problem is that this took place at the same time as housing values were peaking. So, the banks were left holding the bag on this one. Good for them. They have made enough money on me lately. The problem is that the government wants to bail them out on this....not good. Let things take their normal course so we don't experience this again. If you can't afford a $250,000 home, there shouldn't be financing available for you to get one. However, this is America, home of Instant Gratification.

Gas crutch: Yep, gas is getting more expensive, and I don't know where that will take us. I was recently at a gathering of well-known economists that said gas prices had peaked....that was December 2007. It just goes to show you that no one, and I mean NO ONE knows where the market is going. There is always talk of alternative fuel sources, and if you look hard enough, you will find cars that are in production that run on everything. Check out www.teslamotors.com as an example, but does anyone have $100,000?? Also, keep in mind that oil is BIG business and not one that the government is going to let go of easily. Check out Exxon's profits for last year. Also, high gas prices are nothing new. Does anyone remember the Oil Crisis years of 1973 and 1974? Odd and Even Days? The market lost 40% respectively during those years; however, the economy grew at a rate of 5% during the same time period. The rest of the decade was a great time to be an investor. Seth makes some great points about what change is needed in order for things to happen. The best point he makes is that nothing will happen that does not line the pockets of politicians or big business. That is unfortunately true. However, if that was not the case, the higher expected return would not take place due to the fact that we would not be operating in a free market.

I tried to keep from editorializing as much as I could, but sometimes I couldn't help it. I know some of you might agree with me, or disagree, and that is cool. I am just glad that we have a forum that is open to this kind of discussion. I love talking about this kind of stuff, so feel free to shoot me a PM with any questions or comments.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to hear from a fellow financier

I remember back in '73 waiting in line in my dad's Impala for about 3 hours just to fill it up. Don't ever want to go through that again.

Yes, the oil crisis is nothing new and even the trend for hybrids is a reflection of the sudden popularity of smaller fuel-efficient Japanese cars back then too.

Rest assured also that banks - primarily the major lenders and home mortgage institutes will be asking for a federal bailout as mentioned. But at the same time banks will rely on other forms of income such as performance bonds or standby letters of credit.

The weakened dollar may be bad for your Paris vacation, but great for exporters. Some of my clients can't meet demand fast enough for overseas buyers of US goods and resources - its a win-win situation for both the buyer and seller. Cheaper goods in exchange for a comfortable margin once foreign earnings are converted back to dollars. Plus the foreign exchange market becomes pretty lucrative when the dollar's in freefall in overnight borrowing. That means banks will make money off the interest (and not the US prime but London Interbank Offered Rate) alone whenever they trade literally their client's dollars for foreign currency with other banks. You don't have to like the system but that is just one of the ways world finance works in a free market. They don't call econ the dismal science for nothing.

Sorry for the dry rambling post folks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just want to be able to buy food, gas, and pay my utilities with out having to watch every single penny I get and wonder if I'll have enough money to do any fun things at all during the month.

I have cut back a lot on things we used to do but now we sit here and pretty much just watch the TV as it's too expensive to go any where! I am at least getting my armor finished and hoping to be in the 501st soon and then i n here as a Sandtrooper. Even working on my armor has been hit as I've had to wait now to get stuff to finish it. I just hope whoever is elected inthe fall wit have the real brains and know how to safely get this greart country back on it's feet and back to the was it was when I was a kid of 10 about 39 years ago.

Short Trooper (Diana)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who(m)ever gets elected, just hope they don't let the tax cuts expire or the average folk will be paying $2100-2500 more in taxes per year and god help us if they create more entitlement programs (as promised) then not only will the tax cut go away but taxes will go way up. I want gov't spending tightened everywhere but defense, anyone promising that?

Doug

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our "defense" budget could stand a reduction. We cut back on funding for public services but continually increase spending on weaponry & war. At some point we need to shift our focus. Obviously we as a country have obligations that need fulfilled but as with our other problems it will require a revolutionary change in thinking to realize that bombs don't build our future.

There is a nice breakdown of the military budget on Wikipedia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As far as spending on "other" things, I just want less gov't in our lives, too many entitlements create a nanny gov't and I think that is just pathetic. What happened to personal responsibilty? Gov't should protect our country and our intrests, generate an environment for commerce and charity, support transit infrastructure, enact and enforce laws, minimize tax burden, and provide basic education. Let the free market and personal charity take care of the rest.

As far as taking care of the "needy" (not talking needy mentally or physical here) -- teach them to pull up their bootstraps and not depend on handouts. We now have generations of folks who are cought in a cycle of poverty simply because they know no other way to live. So creating more entitlements just creates more dependants -- gov't sucks at this stuff.

Man, I could go on and on...

Doug

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its the same story over here in the U.K. the only difference being that we, as consumers are not being encouraged to spend but are being told to take it easy. We also have a govt that really cant control immigration and to top it off throw state handouts to immigrants and their families (most of which still reside in their native country). We're in a right state and the govt is allowing tax payers money to haemorrhage left right and center. Economically, banks are less likely to extend loans, interest rates have gone up and the housing market has levelled out for the first time in who knows how long and we're all holding our breath to see if it starts dropping.

Interesting to note though that historically whenever there is war, economic decline or at the very least strife is not far behind. although war is the last thing to ever be attributed to a decline. Although the war machine creates jobs and apparently fuels the economy it's the cleaning up of the country(s) at the center of the conflict that causes the most harm. Wasnt it the U.S that loaned post WW1 Germany the money to start rebuilding only to need it back rather desperately after the big crash?

i'm sure there are graphs somewhere that show this pattern (dredging up the modern history files in my head so i might have this a little mixed up )

to the average person govt change makes little or no difference in the long run.

Unless Arnie makes president one day One thing i read in an interview that made an impression was him saying he isnt driven by money as most politicians are. He doesnt rely on 'donations' and cant be bought as he is has a multi million dollar fortune already.

Anyway, it may sound naive and simple advice though it is, whenever i feel the economic pinch i simply live within my means. This means without the luxuries (video games, new technologies, ludicrously lavish spending sprees) and spend only what i earn. If living costs rise or the mortgage repayments start getting tough there are always ways to cut back. A friend of mine moved out of his house and then rented it out to a bunch of students to pay the mortgage. He actually made some money doing that. Not an ideal solution for everybody but hey, needs must. Luckily for me most of my armour is sourced from the U.S. and it's a good exchange rate for me. I like to think i'm helping to boost the American economy every time a buy new kit

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...I like to think i'm helping to boost the American economy every time a buy new kit

This is one of things I really like about this hobby. Most of the money we spend goes in the pockets of people just like us. I feel much better about sending a few hundred dollars to a regular guy, rather than a corporation because I know the money is circulating within our economy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When I say public services, I primarily mean education and things like fire departments, police departments, and hospitals. I agree that most of the welfare type of programs could stand to get the boot. Its just sad to me to think of the money we pour into an offensive military (nothing wrong with maintaining a defensive force but lets be honest, that isn't what we do) and I see more useful things underfunded.

To Mikes point, I also like knowing my money goes into the hands of a fellow hobbyist instead of a faceless company.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

W...Its just sad to me to think of the money we pour into an offensive military (nothing wrong with maintaining a defensive force but lets be honest, that isn't what we do) and I see more useful things underfunded...

But the actuality is, all that money doesn't exist in the first place. The government basically asks the Federal Reserve for a loan to fund the war. Money loaned to us by a bank with interest. And folks wonder why the national debt is so high? It's partly because of war mongering. Eventually, every American will have to pay for it. We are slaves to a bank. Each and every one of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You said it, its all a paper shuffle. Either tax and spend, or keep taxes down and don't spend as much. I guess its just the priorities of the people at the top being warped. Like I said before they are disconnected from the reality of what it is to be an average citizen of this country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You said it, its all a paper shuffle. Either tax and spend, or keep taxes down and don't spend as much. I guess its just the priorities of the people at the top being warped. Like I said before they are disconnected from the reality of what it is to be an average citizen of this country.

AMEN , I agree with that!

SHort Trooper (Diana)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


×
×
  • Create New...